CESAR ZUCCO JR.
Ph.D. UCLA (2007) | M.A. IUPERJ (2000) | B.A. UFSC-Law (1999)
Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV)
Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE)
I am a Political Scientist and Associate Professor at FGV/EBAPE, a school of business and public administration in Rio de Janeiro. I am spending most of the 2017-18 academic year in Oxford, as a "non-stipendiary visitor" to Nuffield College. I have previously been an Assistant Professor at Rutgers and held visiting appointments at Princeton, Yale, and IUPERJ (currently IESP). This website provides information about my published and ongoing projects, as well as links to data and replication materials. I try to keep it updated, but feel free to contact me with suggestions, corrections, or to request materials not available here.
I specialize in Latin American politics, and have written on executive-legislative relations, political parties, electoral
politics, social policy, voting behavior, and on the measurement and meaning of ideology.
I have recently completed a co-author book manuscript with David Samuels about partisanship in Brazil. In this manuscript, we employ a mix of observational and experimental techniques to examine the determinants and consequences of party identification, with a special focus on the Workers Party (PT). We devote quite a lot of attention to negative-partisanship, which we show to be particularly important despite having been overlooked by the literature. The main message is that partisanship and antipartisanship developed in tandem in Brazil, and have shaped voting behavior to a much greater extent than has been previously acknowledged.
My main current project is a collaboration with Daniela Campello in which we examine how economic factors beyond the control of presidents affect their popularity and reelection prospects. We are particularly interested in the consequences of voters' misattribution of responsibility for economic outcomes and how it limits the possibility of holding presidents accountable. This is also a book-length project. The first paper in the project was published in the JOP in 2016, two other working papers are now circulating and a first draft of the entire should be finished by early 2018.
In parallel, Timothy Power and I coordinate the Brazilian Legislative Surveys, a two-decade effort to track and record the beliefs of Brazilian legislators. The 8th wave of the BLS was fielded during the first semester of 2017 and its results and data will be made public and discussed in a workshop hosted by Oxford's Latin American Centre in February 2018.
WORK IN PROGRESS
- (2016, with Jairo Nicolau) "Trading Old Errors for New Errors? The Impact of Electronic Voting Technology on Party Label Votes in Brazil'' Electoral Studies, 43:10-20. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials will be available soon!
- (2016, with Daniela Campello) "Presidential Success and the World Economy" The Journal of Politics 78(2):589--602. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials are available here.
- (2015, with David Samuels) "Crafting Mass Partisanship at the Grass Roots, from the Top Down" British Journal of Political Science 45(4):755-775. Supplemental information and replication materials available here.
- (2015) "The Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers in Four Presidential Elections (2002-2014)'' Brazilian Political Science Review 9(1):135-149. Supplemental information and replication materials available here.
- (2015) "Estabilidad Sin Raices: La Institucionalización del Sistema de Partidos Brasileño'' In Mariano Torcal (org.) Los problemas de la Institucionalización de los Sistemas de partidos en America Latina, Ch. 3, Anthropos de Siglo XXI.
- (2015, with Daniela Campello) "Understanding the Increasing Popularity of Brazilian Presidents,'' In Needell, Jeffrey (org.) Emergent Brazil: Key Perspectives on a New Global Power, University Press of Florida, Gainesville, Ch.3. pp.51--67.
- (2014, with David Samuels) "Lulismo, Petismo, and the Future of Brazilian Politics" Journal of Politics in Latin America 6(3):129--158.
- (2014, with David Samuels) "The Power of Partisanship in Brazil: Evidence from Survey Experiments" American Journal of Political Science 51(1):212-35. An inactive version of the online survey is available here. Supplemental information and replication materials are available here.
- (2013) "When Pay Outs Pay Off: Conditional Cash-Transfers and Voting Behavior in Brazil 2002-2010" American Journal of Political Science 47(3):810-822. Supplemental information and replication materials are available here.
- (2013, with Timothy Power) "Bolsa Família and the Shift in Lula's Electoral Base, 2002-2006" Latin American Research Review 48(2):3-24. Supplemental information and replication materials are available here.
- (2013) "Legislative Coalitions in Presidential Systems: The Case of Uruguay'' Latin American Politics and Society 55(1):96-118. Supplemental information, replication materials, and ideal point estimates are available here.
- (2012, with Timothy Power) "Elite Preferences in a Consolidating Democracy: The Brazilian Legislative Surveys, 1990-2009" Latin American Politics and Society 54(4):1-27. Supplemental information, replication materials, and estimates are available here.
- (2011, with Ben Lauderdale) "Distinguishing Between Influences on Brazilian Legislative Behavior" Legislative Studies Quarterly 36(3):363-396. Links to Supplemental information, complete set of ideal point estimates and roll call votes.
- (2011, co-edited volume organized with Timothy Power) O Congresso por ele mesmo. UFMG Press, Belo Horizonte. Data available here.
- Esquerda, Direita e Governo: A ideologia dos partidos políticos brasileiros (Chapter in the above mentioned book)
- (2009) "Ideology or What? Legislative Behavior in Multiparty Presidential Settings" The Journal of Politics, 71(3):1076-1092. Data available here.
- (2009, with Timothy
Power) "Estimating Ideology of Brazilian Legislative Parties, 1990-2005" Latin American Research Review, 44(1):218-246.
Data available here.
- (2008) "The President's `New' Constituency: Lula and the Pragmatic
Vote in Brazil's 2006 Presidential Election" Journal of Latin American Studies, 40 p.29-49. Data available
- (2008, with Daniela Campello) "A esquerda em um país democrático, globalizado e desigual: Uma análise do Brasil de Lula" in Moreira, Carlos et al (Editors), La nueva política en América Latina: rupturas y continuidades. Trilice, Montevideo, p.97-124.
- (2007) "Where's the Bias: A Reassessment of the Chilean Electoral System'' Electoral Studies, 26, p.303-14. Data available here.